Pokemon alt art prices have split five ways in 29 days

By CardPop Research Team — 2026-08-06 · 8 min read

Across the 29 days to 1 August 2026, the Umbreon VMAX alt art ask fell 25.1% while the Brilliant Stars Charizard V didn't move at all. Here's what the snapshots show across five chase cards, and what an Australian buyer should actually pay once postage and grading are counted.

Where the five cards sat on 1 August 2026

On 1 August 2026, the nine live listings for the Umbreon VMAX alternate art from Evolving Skies averaged AUD $2,981.23. Fourteen graded listings averaged AUD $7,705.23 on the same day. That is the top of the Pokemon alt art price ladder across the five chase cards CardPop snapshots daily, and it is also the card that fell hardest inside the window: the raw average is down 25.1% from the first observation on 4 July.

The other four moved in different directions, or not at all. Below is what 28 daily observations across 29 days actually produced.

Reading the numbers before trusting them

These figures come from live eBay AU and US listings, converted to AUD, captured once a day. They are asking prices, not settled sales. Two things follow from that.

First, the averages carry junk. The Umbreon raw minimum on 1 August was AUD $14.99. Nobody is selling a 215/203 for fifteen dollars. That listing is a proxy, a damaged copy, a bulk lot with the card named in the title, or a mistake. The Rayquaza raw minimum was AUD $24.55 on the same day. When a listing pool is nine or seventeen items deep, one item like that pulls the mean around.

Second, the counts are thin. Giratina V had six graded listings on 1 August, spanning AUD $339.89 to AUD $14,299.99. An average of AUD $4,393.25 sits inside that spread, but a spread of forty-two to one across six items is not a price. It is a list. Charizard V had five graded listings. Treat both of those graded averages as indicative at best.

Third, US listings converted to AUD mean the exchange rate is baked into every number here. A move in the AUD shows up as a move in the card. I cannot separate the two from this data.

The five cards, 1 August 2026

All figures AUD, snapshot dated 1 August 2026, window 4 July to 1 August 2026.

Why Umbreon holds differently to the legendaries

The interesting number on the Umbreon VMAX alt art is not the price. It is the graded premium multiple: 2.6x, the second lowest in the set. Rayquaza sits at 3.9x, Giratina at 4.0x.

A low graded multiple on an expensive card usually means the raw copies are already being priced by people who know exactly what they hold. Nine raw listings against fourteen graded listings tells the same story. The raw pool is small and defended. Sellers are not treating an ungraded Umbreon as a lottery ticket waiting on a PSA verdict; they are pricing it as a finished object. Eeveelution demand also comes from single-card buyers rather than set builders, and single-card buyers are less fussy about the slab than an investor flipping on grade arbitrage.

Rayquaza and Giratina sit at the other end. Seventeen raw Rayquaza listings and thirteen raw Giratina listings, with raw minimums of AUD $24.55 and AUD $31.44 respectively, means those raw pools contain a lot of noise and probably a lot of played or questionable copies. The 3.9x and 4.0x multiples are partly real scarcity of high grades and partly a raw average dragged down by rubbish. Do not read a 4x multiple as 4x of value waiting to be captured.

Lugia V is the odd one out at 1.5x. Sixteen graded listings averaging AUD $1,370.50, with a graded minimum of AUD $850, against a raw average of AUD $890.59. The graded floor is essentially the raw average. That set is heavily graded, the slabs are common, and the grade adds little. Lugia also had the largest graded decline in the window at -18.7%.

The Rayquaza +43.9% needs an asterisk

Rayquaza VMAX shows the biggest raw gain in the set. I would not report it as a price rise.

Over the same window the raw average ranged from a low of AUD $276.15 to a high of AUD $1,250.67. That is a spread of more than four times on a 29-day average of a single card. Prices for a card at this level do not do that. What moves like that is the listing mix. A few cheap or mislabelled listings dominate the pool on one day, they sell or get pulled, and the average jumps. Meanwhile the graded average moved -1.7% over the window, which is close to flat.

The honest read: the graded Rayquaza market was stable across the window at around AUD $4,417 on the latest snapshot, and the raw average is too unstable to call a direction. If you want a working number for a clean raw copy, the Rayquaza VMAX alt art price page is the place to watch the daily figure rather than the 29-day change.

Giratina's +13.2% is more believable. Its raw range was AUD $932.38 to AUD $1,155.80, a band of about 24%, which is wide but not absurd for thirteen listings. The Giratina V alt art graded average fell 11% over the same period, so raw and graded moved apart. Two different pools, two different stories, one month of data. I would not build a thesis on it.

The steadiest number in the set

The Charizard V alt art from Brilliant Stars posted a 0.0% raw change over the window. Its raw average moved between AUD $437.66 and AUD $474.20, a band of about 8%, across twenty listings on the final day. Graded moved -1.3%.

Twenty raw listings is the deepest pool in this group, and a tight band on a deep pool is the closest thing to a real price here. If you want a figure you can quote with a straight face, it is roughly AUD $470 for a raw Charizard V alt art on 1 August 2026. Everything else in this set carries a wider error bar.

What an Australian buyer should actually pay

Asking prices are not purchase prices. Three adjustments before you commit.

1. Discount the ask

The averages above include listings that have sat for months. A seller asking the top of the range on Umbreon at AUD $5,432.57 is not setting the market; the nine-listing average of AUD $2,981.23 is a better anchor, and a reasonable offer sits under it. On a card where the raw ask fell 25.1% in 29 days, the seller who has been listed since early July is the one to approach.

2. Count the postage properly

A card worth four figures should not travel as a large letter. Express Post with extra cover, signature on delivery, and rigid packaging is the minimum, and for AUD $3,000 of card you want the declared cover to actually reach that value, which usually means a parcel service rather than a letter product. Budget the postage as part of the price, not as an afterthought, and confirm with the seller before you pay. Buying from a US seller adds import handling and a longer window where the card is out of anyone's hands.

3. Do the grading maths on the 9, not the 10

This is where most of the money gets lost. Take Umbreon at the 1 August figures. Raw average AUD $2,981.23, graded average AUD $7,705.23. The 2.6x looks like a strong case for submitting. But that graded average runs from AUD $3,217.49 to AUD $9,999.99, and the top of that range is a PSA 10. If your raw copy comes back a 9, you are landing near the bottom of the graded pool, close to AUD $3,200, against a raw copy that was already asking AUD $2,981. After fees and two-way postage you are behind.

Charizard V is starker. Raw AUD $470.78, graded minimum AUD $674.83 across five listings. The gap on a 9 is roughly two hundred dollars before costs. That does not clear a grading fee plus insured postage in both directions, plus the weeks the card is unavailable to sell.

Lugia V is the clearest no. Graded minimum AUD $850 against a raw average of AUD $890.59. A graded Lugia at the bottom of the pool is worth less than the raw average ask, and the graded average fell 18.7% over the window. If you already own a raw Lugia V alt art, the snapshot gives you no reason to submit it. The full picture on cost and timing is on the CardPop grading guide, but the principle is short: grading pays when the card is genuinely gem-quality and the top-grade premium is wide. Two of these five clear that bar. Three do not.

What I take from the window

Umbreon is the only card here with a decline large enough to notice, and 29 days is not enough to say whether that is a market repricing or nine sellers testing lower numbers after a quiet July. The Eeveelution premium is intact in absolute terms; it just has less air between raw and graded than the legendaries do, and that is a feature of who is buying it rather than a weakness.

The legendaries look flat to noisy. Rayquaza and Giratina graded averages moved -1.7% and -11%. Lugia graded moved -18.7% on sixteen listings, which is the one soft number I would take seriously in this set. Charizard V did nothing at all, on the deepest listing pool of the five, and that is the number I trust most.

One month of asking prices from a handful of listings per card. It tells you where the ladder sits today. It does not tell you where it goes next, and anyone claiming otherwise from this much data is guessing.